Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Togo

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $778,571$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{710,785.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 126.9)}}\) (asimptote \(710,785.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,289$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,940.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 131.0)}}\) (asimptote \(19,940.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,838$ on 2020-11-26

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $92,475$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,793.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 229.9)}}\) (asimptote \(108,793.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,034$ on 2020-11-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,988$ on 2020-11-26

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,570$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,173.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.9)}}\) (asimptote \(14,173.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $105$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 201.1)}}\) (asimptote \(147.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $509$ on 2020-11-26

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $80,407$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,398.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 201.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,398.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,140$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,300.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 192.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,300.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,682$ on 2020-11-26

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $340,684$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{778,657.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 264.6)}}\) (asimptote \(778,657.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,619$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,403.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 251.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,403.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,257$ on 2020-11-26

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $114,475$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,979.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 99.1)}}\) (asimptote \(104,979.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,596$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,169.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,169.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,611$ on 2020-11-26

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,676$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,419.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,419.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-11-26

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,146$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,182.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,182.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-11-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cote d'Ivoire recovered 96%
Togo recovered 33%
Libya recovered 3%

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,199$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,325.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.2)}}\) (asimptote \(20,325.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 83.1)}}\) (asimptote \(125.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $216$ on 2020-11-26

Togo⮸

Population $8,278,724$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,904$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,024.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 204.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,024.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 210.9)}}\) (asimptote \(104.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $495$ on 2020-11-26